CODEWITHINDIA.COM / May 23, 2024, 23:46 IST
China’s Strategy to Annex Taiwan: No War Needed
Recent Chinese Military Drills Around Taiwan
China’s recent military exercises near Taiwan, just three days after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, indicate a possible blockade strategy. These “Joint Sword-2024A” drills, labeled as a “strong punishment” for Taiwan’s “separatist acts,” suggest Beijing is exploring alternatives to direct armed conflict.
Key Developments:
- Taiwan’s Response: Fighter jets launched from a Taiwan airbase, with aerial and naval forces mobilized. The coast guard also warned off Chinese vessels.
- PLA Activity: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted drills in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported detecting 49 Chinese aircraft around the island, the highest number this year.
- Xi Jinping’s Stance: China’s leader has emphasized the right to take Taiwan by force if necessary, but current actions hint at a less destructive approach.
A Risky, Yet Less Deadly Approach
China’s strategy appears to focus on a blockade, a tactic that may minimize intervention from the US, which is bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to assist Taiwan. However, the success of such a blockade depends on China’s ability to quickly control the situation before the US and its allies can respond effectively.
Potential Risks:
- Taiwanese Resistance: If China cannot neutralize Taiwan’s defenses, it could face significant resistance and losses.
- US Intervention: A prolonged blockade might provoke a broader conflict involving US forces, expanding beyond a simple blockade.
Historical Context
China has previously used military drills to pressure Taiwan:
- August 2022: PLA Navy’s large live-fire exercise after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.
- April 2023: Similar drill after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
“Short-of-War Coercion” Strategy
According to a recent report, “From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War,” Beijing’s strategy involves applying continuous pressure through various means without large-scale military actions.
Elements of the Strategy:
- Economic Pressure:
- Imposing selective trade bans
- Conducting inspections on Taiwan-bound cargo
- Leveraging economic inducements to influence Taiwan’s business community
- Psychological Operations:
- Information campaigns to undermine faith in Taiwan’s government and military
- Disinformation to emphasize potential US abandonment
- Cyber-attacks to degrade societal resilience
- Diplomatic Isolation:
- Pressuring international organizations and countries to exclude Taiwan
- Exploiting ambiguities in the US’s “One China” policy
- Manipulating Political Elites:
- Using threats and incentives to sway political leaders
- Infiltrating political and business circles
- Legislative and Judicial Manipulation:
- Encouraging legal challenges and orchestrating political crises
- Promoting pro-Beijing political figures
- Military Demonstrations:
- Limited maneuvers like air and naval exercises, missile tests, and cyber-attacks framed as defensive measures
Countering China’s Strategy: Taiwan and US Plans
To counter China’s “Short-of-War Coercion” strategy, Taiwan, the US, and their allies are adopting a multi-faceted approach:
Strengthening Economic Resilience:
- Diversifying economic partnerships
- Reducing dependency on China
- Reinforcing internal economic policies
Enhancing Cyber and Information Security:
- Bolstering cyber defenses
- Developing counter-information operations
- Protecting critical infrastructure
Diplomatic Engagement:
- Increasing Taiwan’s participation in international organizations
- Enhancing bilateral relations
- Visible and robust diplomatic efforts
Military Preparedness and Deterrence:
- Maintaining a credible military presence in the region
- Joint military exercises and arms sales
- Clear strategic communications to deter potential PRC actions
Political Support and Solidarity:
- Building international coalitions against Chinese coercion
- Clear communication about Taiwan’s rights on the global stage
By implementing these measures, Taiwan and its allies aim to strengthen their defense against China’s coercive tactics, ensuring stability and resilience in the face of potential aggression.